I really don't understand why the media is already calling the race for Obama (I surely hope they are right). It is not that the African American community is paranoid about the notion that 'white folks will steal our election'. It is also about the electoral math. This is not a done deal yet. A lot of those battleground states still aren't solid-Obama. It is conceivable (though not likely) that McCain can hold on to all the Bush states and still win the election. Obama is on offensive by the nature of the campaign, and he needs to pick up two small Bush states (Colorado, Nevada?) or one big Bush state (Ohio, Virginia?) to lock in the win. There is still work to be done.

Forget about national polls for a second (even though it is a great concern). My feelings is that Obama will have a hard time winning the electoral college even if he had the lead.

Looking at the states:

FL is almost out of play. McCain was never behind in state polls for FL before the conventions. After the convention bounce, it doesn't seem likely Obama is going to win there.

OH is still possible, but has become a lot harder. Before the conventions, McCain had a slight lead (1-2%). The electorate there is a lot more socially conservative than most people think. The whole "bitter comment" thing hurts Obama in OH as well as PA. These are the people who literally are hurt very badly in the economy and cling to guns, religions, and anti-immigrant sentiments. Like one OH voter said on CNN, Obama just doesn't seem like a "real American" to him. I don't think PA is going to turn red, though.

VA has the best chance as a pick up for Obama. But it is traditionally a red state. McCain and Obama were actually tied before the conventions. I am very interested to see what will happen post-conventions.

Honestly, 60 days is still a long way to go. But if you really look at states by states, Obama has his work cut out for him.

Ok, a confession first - I haven't really posted anything since 2005. After the entire 2004 operation and the state-wide election in 2005 (NJ), I became very cynical of the whole Amerian political landscape. I didn't lose interest completely, but there were other things in my life I had to focus on. I still have midnight debate with my friends about current issues and politics, but I considered myself generally side-lined.

And I was probably the only one in my circle (a very liberal circle) that didn't catch the Obamamania earlier this year. Not that I liked Hilary Clinton. In fact, I was very much against the idea of having a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton hell cycle, but Obama never striked me as anything other than another politician, even though he is having a very good political career(so far).

But recently, I can't help to feel Obama is being pounded by the Republican political machine. McCain has come out attacking in every conceivable way, and America is buying all the negative attacks. More than 20% of Americans still think Obama is a Muslim. The media's frantic coverage of his world tour helped to make the case that Obama is an arrogant snob who care more about what Europeans think than what Americans think. Am I wrong in thinking that the Republicans really have a much better political organization than the Democrats? The McCain campaign has been vicious, tough, and creative. Obama's campaign is pretty much doing nothing but taking the hits. Now, today the Gallop poll came out that they are tied at 44%-44%. And yeah, AP wrote the news of Obama 'back away' from McCain's debate challenges, reinforcing the idea that McCain is tough and Obama is weak.

Somebody tells me I am wrong - but I think this campaign is imploding in front of our eyes.

The latest news is that President Bush has directed at least more than a quarter of the 15-billion federal AIDS campaign money to religious groups such as the one that is headed by Billy Graham's son, and most of these religious groups/churches are extremely conservative in their methodology and ideology. For example, they advocate abstinence rather than the use of condoms in prevention of AIDS. I realize it is hard to argue the fact that many religious organizations and churches have positive influences on social goods and contribute to the general welfare of society. We also have to realize that a vast majority of Americans do claim that Faith/Religion play an integral part of their lives. However, there is something disturbing about the reinforcing nature between conservative churches and conservative President, especially when there is public fund involved. It is true that religious Conservatives have always been a solid basis of GOP. But since the Presidency of George W. Bush, the conservative churches have been actively involved in politics and lobbying activities, which a religious, non-profit organization should not do under U.S. tax law. And now we may have the first hint of the conservative President giving the economic benefit back to these churches. While none of this is happening in large scale to cause a total public outrage yet, it is certainly very disturbing.

I sincerely hope that a review/analysis can be taken on the split within the Democratic Party about this whole Alito Filibuster mess. Personally, I don't think it is just the Democratic Leadership in the Senate refusing to take the hardline because of the political calculus. There is also an underlining issue that certain section of Democratic population are now taking a different view than the Democratic activists who are urging on the Filibuster. When you are so devoted to your ideals and causes, sometimes it is easy to forget there are people in your camp that may choose to voice their opinions a little differently. Nevertheless, if I learn anything from this Filibuster saga, it is that if you want to achieve anything in politics, your side has to be united. Indeed, "A house divided against itself can not stand". Hopefully people on the Left can figure out a way to work together instead of constantly ceding power to the Right, eventually.

Well, a lot has been written on Tom Kean Jr., the New Jersey Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006. He does have his father's name recognition (Gov. Tom Kean Sr. of New Jersey). He also have been privately fundraising for over a year now and should have a very large warchest going into the campaign (not to mention the support from National Republicans) He seems to be the perfect candidate the GOP can put forward to challenge Menendez. The only weakness people seem to be mentioning is that he is not very good at debating in public. That remains to be seen, and probably is not an important factor in a state election.

The Democratic leadership in Congress came up with their ethical reform plan. But it seems both inadequate and a little too late (after the Republicans introduce theirs). It really disappoint us in the grassroot that the leadership can not seize a good opportunity when GOP is being besieged by a big ethical scandal like this. But we have neither the symbolic reform leader (like Newt Gingrich did for GOP in '94) nor political skill and will to campaign on reform. Instead, we let GOP paint the Abramoff scandal as a bipartisan scandal and GOP will likely come out as the reformer. If by November the issue fades away, it is partially because of lack of decisive action on democratic leadership.  

I have the greatest respect for the Clintons. Despite of the whole Monica Lewinsky mess, Bill Clinton is really one of the greatest politican at work in our lifetime. Hilary's tenacity, vision, and poltical skills deserve to be praised. However, I just don't see them returning to the White House in 2008. Despite of the fact everyone is calling Hilary the front-runner for 2008 Demoractic nomination, I think her position is deceptively weak. It is not just her pro-iraqi war stance (which she is trying to modify. The democrats also have to take into consideration that if nominated, she is almost certain going to lose every state in the South and many moderate conservative state too. In fact, she has to be on the defensive and take a "Northern Strategy", so to speak. The country is STILL A LOT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO ADMIT PUBLICLY. a lot of people profess they favor gender equality, but still secretly prefer not to see a woman in charge. It is a rather sad reality. It is very possible that another candidate who is more likely to win the General Election will come out to challege Hilary before 2008.